Kosovo/a - Half
Truths About Demography and Ethnic
Cleansing
TFF PressInfo 43
Lund, August 23, 1998 - "There are dangerously many
half truths and biases in the reporting from Kosovo/a. The
generalised media image of the conflict shapes public
opinion which in turn threatens to push politicians into
action that will have counterproductive effects on the
ground," says Jan Oberg, head of TFF's Conflict-Mitigation
team, upon returning from yet another mission to Belgrade,
Prishtina and Skopje.
"The standard media story about Kosovo the last six
months goes like this: 'Kosovo is a province in Serbia
inhabited by about 2 million people, 90 per cent of whom are
Albanians and 10 per cent Serbs. The dissolution of Tito's
Yugoslavia started in 1989 when Serbian president Slobodan
Milosevic repealed the autonomy which the province had
enjoyed since 1974. The region is characterised by extreme
poverty and systematic human rights violations by Serbian
authorities against the Albanians, to the extent that one is
justified in calling it a police state or an 'apartheid'
system. The Serb 'offensive' is an attempt by Belgrade to
ethnically 'cleanse' the province. It looks like a
repetition of Bosnia and, thus, something must be done to
stop it.'
I have come to believe," says Oberg, "that this standard
media story is based on the KISS Principle - Keep it Simple,
Stupid. Admittedly there are important exceptions of
high-quality, unbiased and research-based journalism. But we
see now - again - how war reports from ex-Yugoslav are
devoid of critical, investigative practises and a truthful
representation of complexity. Analysing the complexities of
REAL reality takes much longer time than it takes for the
leading media to construct a MEDIA reality. Public opinion
is shaped by the latter and decision-makers cannot ignore
it. Thus, they constantly risk taking 'simple' steps that
have 'stupid' effects on the ground if public opinion
remains informed predominantly by KISS-type reporting. In
conflicts of the Kosovo type, NOTHING is simple and
black-and-white images are simply untrue.
Add to that that the daily news coverage quotes mainly
materials from Kosovo-Albanian Information Centres around
the world supplemented with TV films and reporting from the
violence in the province. The Serb side's media sources, the
Tanjug Bureau, government sources, independent media and
government-critical media as well as the Serb Media Centre
in Kosovo's capital, Prishtina, are much less frequently
used as sources to understand the conflict. (The main
websites of both sides are available at TFF's site). Some
media, e.g. Radio Free Europe and Danish daily Politiken,
use the Albanian name of the self-proclaimed state, Kosova,
while the Serbian 'Kosmet-Metohija' or even the more
international 'Kosovo' is ignored.
International media can not credibly claim to be
politically neutral or to 'cover reality' objectively. They
may not be party to the conflicts, but they are definitely
important players in conflict-management processes. This and
the next PressInfo will deal with a few of the simplified
and therefore false aspects of the Kosovo media reporting,"
says Jan Oberg.
"First, there is the standard story's presentation of who
lives in the Kosovo province.
Population statistics are not always reliable in this
part of the world, so we should all be cautious. But the
1981 census which is the only reliable one gave these
results for Kosovo: total population 1,584 000 of whom 77 %
Albanians, 13 % Serbs and others, such as Montenegrins,
Turks, Muslims, Croats, Romani, 9 %. The census of 1991
(boycotted by the Albanians) stipulated 1,965 000 of whom 82
% Albanians.
The Albanians have claimed, however, that 250 000 left
between 1975 and 1988 and 200 000 between 1989 and 1991,
i.e. almost half a million or about 25% of the Albanian
population due to 'ethnic cleansing.' So, the claim that
Albanians make up 90 % AND that 450 000 have left evidently
can not simultaneously be true. Also, since Albanians have
boycotted censuses in what they consider 'neighbouring' and
'occupying' Serbia/Yugoslavia, journalists, editors,
columnists and others ought to be highly careful with
figures from that side. And it is simply not true that there
are no other ethnic groups but Albanians and Serbs
there.
Why does the majority of the media not even check such
basic facts? If reporters want to promote the interpretation
that Kosova already is, or should be, an independent
republic, it is logical to point out that a great majority
are Albanians and refer to exaggerated figures and
proportions - the figures provided by the Albanian side. If
the point of departure is international law and the
recognition that the province is an integral part of Serbia,
it makes sense to (also) point out that Albanians make up
between 17 and 20 % of Serbia's population. Both
perspectives and figures could have been conveyed by the
media and so could the fact that there are people of other
origin. Any journalist could easily have obtained the full
picture and stated that all figures must be taken with a
grain of salt.
Second, there is the common claim that the Albanians have
been victims of ethnic cleansing.
Can about 1,5 million people be cleansed? Is that
Serbia's goal and, if so, would Serbia be allowed to by the
international community? I doubt it," says Dr. Oberg, "as a
matter of fact it is a quite bizarre allegation. The facts
point, if anything, in the opposite direction: in 1961, 67 %
were Albanians, 24 % were Serbs and 4% Montenegrins, i.e.
roughly forty years ago one-third of Kosovo's population was
NOT Albanian. By 1971 the respective figures were 74 %, 18 %
and 3%. Today Serbs seem to make up less than 10 % of the
population in the province. In short, demographic expertise
should be able to calculate when practically 100 % of
Kosovo's people will be Albanian. The fertility rate of
Albanians is the highest in Europe, the Serb one among the
lowest. Over the years, Serbs have felt harassed and
marginalised (also by Belgrade) and richer Albanians have
bought their property, land and houses. Deprived of economic
opportunities, many found it better to live in Serbia
proper. I want to emphasise that the Albanians have NOT
'cleansed' Serbs out of the province with directly violent
means, but the province's Serb minority has felt anything
but welcome and, consequently, decided to leave. No element
of Albanian politics has offered the Serb minority in Kosovo
any reason for optimism about future co-existence.
But during this war, innocent Albanians have been forced
out of their houses? That's true, but those who argue that
this is ethnic cleansing must explain how they distinguish
between the effects of warfare as such and a deliberate
policy of ethnic cleansing. The Kosova Liberation Army, KLA,
has chosen to arm Albanian civilian citizens, young and old
(to the extent that they were not already) and
house-by-house, rather than meeting the Serb police,
paramilitaries and regular army in frontal warfare. It has
chosen terrorism, bombings and hostage taking. If those who
equate Serbia's policies with 'ethnic cleansing' for a
moment put themselves in the shoes of the Serb government,
could they tell us how they would face the challenge from
this type of warfare without causing any civilians to flee?"
- asks Jan Oberg.
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