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Tony
Blair's two great mistakes
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF Associate
since 1991
July 16th, 2004
LONDON - If
parliamentary politics were a simple yes and no business,
as in a referendum, British Prime Minister Tony Blair
would be out of office by the end of the week. It's a
subtle process, as it should be, and his party, bruised
though it is by being seriously misled on the reasons for
going to war in Iraq, is apparently not yet ready for
it.
Still, after the publication of the
latest report - authored by Lord Butler, a former head of
the UK civil service - that has plumbed the murky world
of intelligence and the office of the prime minister in
the decision making that led up to the Iraqi war -
historians if not yet parliament are already fashioning
their judgments. Anthony Seldon, author of a recent
biography of Blair, has observed, "No prime minister in
the last 100 years has added to their achievements after
seven years in power. I don't believe anything he does
will add to his status. He's done it, we've had Tony
Blair."
History may regard Blair well for
much of his domestic stewardship - successful economic
growth, improved spending and management of the
educational and national health systems and so forth but
it seems now inevitable that on the two major foreign
policy issues he dealt with - Europe and the Middle East
- he will be judged a profound failure. Unlike President
George W. Bush he cannot even take much credit for
improving the West's relationship with Russia, China and
India.
Blair, along with Bush, will be
remembered in most of the world as the man who rammed a
jagged hole in the Charter of the UN, tragically laying
down a precedent for other powers to go too easily to
war. At home he will be remembered as the leader who
dissembled the truth on an issue of central importance.
He was not merely economical with the truth, he set out
to use all his credibility as a man who said that he
regarded honesty as a fundamental part of his Christian
convictions to persuade the public of an argument that in
his brain if not his heart he must have known might be
false.
There can be no doubt from reading
the Butler report that whilst Blair was telling us all
that the evidence of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction
was incontrovertible he and his closest advisers felt
they had to work on toughening the presentation of the
evidence given him by the intelligence agencies.
Moreover, not only did he mislead the public he
apparently allowed himself to be swayed by evidence that
he judged was not strong enough to convince a skeptical
public. As Lord Butler remarked, "more weight was placed
on the intelligence than it could bear."
We know that for Blair it was
important for Britain to support America. And we know too
from what Blair said before the U.S. Congress last July
that the fact that Saddam Hussein was a murderous tyrant
was enough justification for him to decide on war. But we
also know that neither parliament nor public would have
regarded that as sufficient reason and if that was the
sole reason the UN Security Council would have come to an
anti war vote much quicker than it did. The world is full
of murderous tyrants and Britain's place is with Europe
first and foremost.
Winston Churchill in September
1946, speaking just six months after his Iron Curtain
speech, said, "I hope to see a Europe where men and women
of every country will think of belonging to their native
land, and wherever they go in this wide domain they truly
feel, 'I am at home.'" For post war Britain its place in
Europe has been the central political issue.
Blair had his opportunities to put
his country at the center of Europe and missed them. He
has spent his entire seven years at the helm running
scared before a vitriolic, untruthful, euro-skeptic
press. The first time was when he first came to power.
Although before the election he had boxed himself in by
promising a referendum on Britain's entry into the
Eurozone and indicated this was to be at a later date, he
could have used the flush of overwhelming victory to
announce that he had now "read the books" and that it was
in Britain's interest to enter the Euro at the onset and
he was calling a referendum in two months' time. Very few
would have wanted to vote "no" at this moment of
enthusiasm in British political life.
Britain has ended up under Blair
being even more semi-detached than it was under the
anti-European Margaret Thatcher. By making a united,
integrated Europe harder to create it pushes further away
the day when Europe is so locked together that the
terrible conflicts, wars and, as Churchill said, "hate
filled" relationships of yesterday, will never
return.
Parliament for now may absolve him
of these momentous double errors. History
won't.
Copyright © 2004 By
JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by
phone +44 7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Follow this
link to read about - and order - Jonathan Power's book
written for the
40th Anniversary of
Amnesty International
"Like
Water on Stone - The Story of Amnesty
International"
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