On
June 19th the new Indian government
has its first talks with Pakistan
about their nuclear weapons
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF Associate
since 1991
June 16, 2004
LONDON - Since the early 1970s-
the time of India's first nuclear explosion- India and
Pakistan have been walking along the unmarked,
mountainous, path that leads to nuclear holocaust. The
struggle for the possession of Kashmir, a searingly
beautiful piece of Himalayan real estate, has taken both
countries, on such a circuitous, diplomatic road that one
is tempted to recall what Palmerston said of the
Schleswig-Holstein dispute that brought Prussia and
Denmark twice to war, "only three people have understood
it, and of these one was dead, one was in an insane
asylum, and he himself had forgotten it."
A new government is in power in New
Delhi. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hates roundabout
talk and cheese-paring diplomacy. He is by nature the
most conciliatory of men and his friends cannot imagine
that he could ever press the nuclear button. Neither, I
think, could Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, judging
from the way she rolled her eyes when I confronted her on
the subject. To all extent and purposes, as long as the
defeated Bharatiya Janata Party is losing strength
rapidly, as it is at the moment, the credibility of
India's nuclear deterrent is all but
suspended.
It is the same on the Pakistani
side, although for quite different reasons. Pakistan is
ruled by a military man, Pervez Musharraf, who has little
compunction about using violence, whether it was to run
the army's long time alliance with the Taliban of
Afghanistan or to begin a nuclear confrontation with
India in 1999 when he authorised the guerrilla incursion
into Kargil on the Indian side of the Line of Control,
the demarcation line that separates Pakistan controlled
Kashmir from the Indian controlled part. But since
September 11th he has been tied in a three-legged race
with America. Neither can move without the other. The
U.S. may have to tolerate a lot- letting Pakistan off the
hook for its lax controls on the free-lance proliferation
activities of its former chief nuclear scientist A.Q.
Khan- but there is little doubt that if Pakistan ever
moved to make use of its nuclear weapons U.S. special
forces on the ground in Pakistan would seize them before
one had time to say Kashmir.
This makes for an unusual political
situation. The two countries have moved from an almost
insouciant playing with nuclear matches in 1999 and again
in December 2001 to one where neither side has a credible
nuclear deterrent.
Surely this must be the time for
peacemaking? The timetable suggests it is. At the end of
this week Indian and Pakistani diplomats will meet in
Delhi as part of the ongoing dialogue initiated by former
prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee when he announced on
April 18th last year that the problems with Pakistan
could not be resolved through the barrel of a gun but
only through dialogue.
Singh has gone even further on the
road to conciliation. He told me in a recent interview
that "short of secession, short of re-drawing boundaries"
India could consider all options.
On the Pakistani side there is also
clear evidence that the mood has changed dramatically
since the last military confrontation with India in
December 2001, following the deadly terrorist attack on
the Indian parliament when the two sides quickly
mobilised over a million men. Now Musharraf, having
survived two assassination attempts, appears to realize
that he must break with the insurgents he once so readily
supported in Kashmir. Clearly they have been prepared to
turn on him.
A whole series of events suggest
that the two sides are determined to try and lay the
groundwork for a breakthrough. The Delhi-Lahore bus
service is running again. Media, business and
parliamentary groups move to and fro. Last October, Delhi
proposed twelve confidence building measures including
air links, rail services, more bus services and sporting
links especially cricket. In return in November Musharraf
offered a ceasefire on the Line of Control which was
immediately accepted by Delhi, and it is being
scrupulously observed. In December, Musharraf publicly
offered to forgo a long-standing demand- that India
honour Jawaharlal Nehru's promise for a UN plebiscite in
Kashmir.
Then when Musharraf and Vajpayee
met in January they committed themselves to unconditional
talks and Delhi appeared to imply that it accepted the
Pakistani position that Kashmir was disputed territory.
For its part Islamabad promised to prevent cross-border
infiltration and terrorism. The meeting this week is
meant to particularly address the issue of confidence
building measures in the nuclear arena.
With Manmohan Singh and Sonia
Gandhi at the apex of power in India we can be sure of
one thing: if the Indian side has anything to do with it
these talks and negotiations, already moving at a sharp
pace under Vajpayjee, can only gather speed.
Note for editor 1) Copyright
JONATHAN POWER 2) dateline Delhi 3) I can be reached by
e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
or by phone: +44 7785 351172.
Copyright © 2004 By
JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by
phone +44 7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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