|
The
Change in Brazil
By
Jonathan
Power
April 1st 2004
LONDON - If Brazil has long lived out its personal
fantasy as the archetypal relaxed, tolerant and
gregarious country with Copacabana beach, the samba, the
carnival and a great deal of sexual freedom it is now
living out in real time its almost forgotten societal
dream, an economic-cum-social revolution.
Brazil has had economic growth before. For the
first eighty years of the last century it was the country
along with Taiwan with the world's fastest growth rates.
Even today after setback after setback it is the world's
eighth largest economy.
Yet it has never kept up with its burgeoning
population, the inequities of the feudal land system that
cast millions into shanty towns and a murder rate that is
more akin to a war zone than a normal society. But with a
government led by a former lathe worker and union leader,
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is determined to beat the
metal of his country into shape as he once did the cars
and workers in his Sao Paulo car factory, it has a clear
and active agenda- fiscal discipline first, more than
ever before, economic growth second, and third, a
commitment with the Zero Hunger program, to give everyone
three meals a day and a chance to move up.
Brazil once appeared to have everything- a nation of
vast dimensions, the size of Europe, bounded by the
steamy tropical rain forests of the Amazon to the north,
and the cool, temperate, munificent, prairies to the
south. No other country in the world offers such
geographic contrasts, or probably such an abundance of
raw materials and raw opportunities. For the best part of
four centuries too much of this has been squandered- the
Amazon raped, the poor exploited and the rich indulged.
At last Brazil has a chance of building a First World
society out of its Third World inheritance.
Lula in political terms is in part a lucky man. His
predecessor, the right of centre, two term president,
Fernando Henrique Cardoso, laid many of the foundations
for future progress. For the first time in living memory
Brazil had fiscal discipline and social reform- from a
rapid increase in primary education to large scale land
redistribution- and made steady progress. But even with a
big congressional majority he was stymied on many
important issues.
Lula is also unlucky. He can only control congress
with an alliance of other parties. And although Brazil
has always been different from other Latin countries in
having a non ideological and non-violent political
climate- the Marxists and terrorists have never made
inroads here despite the terrible inequalities- too many
politicians are beholden to special interests. They are a
broad mix- the self-important, cosseted, slow moving,
judiciary, the powerful landed class, an inept and often
brutal police force, the public sector workers with their
100% state pensions and the well to do students who get a
disproportionate share of state handouts whilst working
class children are unable to afford a university
education.
Lula has a sharply defined no nonsense personality. He
has a down to earth, straightforward manner, even though
he is a rather shy man who sits fidgety and uncomfortably
in the presidential suit and tie. In conversation he
shines with one insight after another. His credibility
with the Brazilian public is unprecedented in modern
Brazilian history. But administration is not his forte
and the unmanageability of layers of ossified laws and
regulations and the self-interest of the huge Brazilian
bureaucracy compounds the problem.
Moreover there is an obvious lack of cohesion in his
cabinet. And financial scandal, even although it has not
touched Lula personally, has involved a fairly senior
figure in his governing circle, and his once
whiter-than-thou Workers' Party looks sullied. More
serious, are the successful attempts in Congress to water
down his pension and judicial reforms.
Nevertheless, a lot is happening and there are a host
of large and small scale initiatives underway. The
economic team is high class. The economy is beginning to
grow and should achieve this year a growth rate of 3.5%.
Last year Brazil ran a massive trade surplus,
turbo-charged by large Chinese imports.
According to Ciro Gomes, who nearly beat Lula in the
election, Brazil could do much better if the
international financial institutions could give it more
leeway. The inflation targeting imposed on Brazil, he
told me, is far too rigid. Western diplomats disagree on
inflation but nevertheless accept that the International
Monetary Fund should loosen up its straightjacket and
allow the government to start spending on the
infrastructural and educational improvements the country
needs if it is to sharply increase its rate of
growth.
Brazil has been savoring its moment of glory with the
election just over a year ago of this quite astonishing
man. Fantasies and dreams are all very well, but now Lula
and Brazil have no choice but hard grind.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2004 By
JONATHAN POWER
Follow this
link to read about - and order - Jonathan Power's book
written for the
40th Anniversary of
Amnesty International
"Like
Water on Stone - The Story of Amnesty
International"
Här kan
du läsa om - och köpa - Jonathan Powers bok
på svenska
"Som
Droppen Urholkar
Stenen"
Tell a friend about this article
Send to:
From:
Message and your name
 
|