Taiwan's
election on Saturday
is a confrontation
with both China and the U.S.
By
Jonathan
Power
March 17, 2004
LONDON - In the short eight years of full democracy
in Taiwan Saturday's election will be the third. In each
election the candidate that Beijing did not like won
office. This time Beijing has made it clear that it
doesn't want to see President Chen Shui-bian re-elected.
By the workings of normal electoral arithmetic he
shouldn't be. In the last election he won on a minority
vote because the opposition- the successor party to
Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang- was divided. This time
there is no division and until recently many assumed Chen
would lose. But once again China has been waving its fist
and the chances are that Chen has a good chance of
gaining a second term.
The more Taiwan becomes democratic, the more the older
generation of Chinese die off (a good many of whom
crossed the strait as part of the fleeing troops of the
Kuomintang defeated by the communists in China's civil
war) and the more Taiwan advances with its formidable
educational system and the technology that system
produces, the more the new voters ask themselves why
should their country kowtow before the dictatorship of
Beijing.
In February, 1972, President Richard Nixon, seeking to
end years of enmity between the U.S. and China, made one
of the greatest mistakes of post World War 2 history.
Signing the Shanghai Communiqué, the U.S.
declared, "The U.S. acknowledges that all Chinese on
either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but
one China and that Taiwan is a part of China."
Understandably these words have been cast in stone by
Beijing. But if it were ever true in Taiwan it is
certainly no longer true. ALL Chinese in Taiwan do NOT
believe their country is part of China. And there's the
rub.
For many, and perhaps even most Taiwanese, this is not
just a question of semantics but also of principle and,
not least, of history. Why should Taiwan forsake the
cause of independence when it was only ruled in a very
desultory manner by the Chinese from 1683 to 1895? For
most Taiwanese this was simply colonialism, no different
from what came before - the Spanish (who ruled for 17
years), the Dutch (38 years) - and after with the
Japanese from 1895 to 1946, who were the first to control
the entire island. Following the end of the Second World
War came the occupation and rule of Chiang Kai-shek and,
after his death, that of his son. In 1991 President Lee
Teng-hui, of the Kuomintang party, renounced Taiwan's
claim to be the true rulers of China.
John Steinbruner of the Brookings Institution has
written in his book "Principles of Global Conflict" that
the Taiwan/China conflict is "a major strategic accident
waiting to happen". Of that there can be little doubt.
China is not prepared to lose face by changing its
policy. As Taiwan develops both economically and
educationally the voices within seeking independence will
grow. The question for the U.S. and Taiwan is how to
manage this democratic transition.
Last November Chen upped the stakes by declaring that
election time would also be the occasion for two
referenda, one of which is on whether Taiwan should
increase its military spending to counterbalance the
growing number of missiles that Beijing is aiming at
Taiwan. Beijing became exceedingly angry and only when
the White House sent an envoy to Taipei to persuade Chen
to stop needling Beijing and President George W. Bush
went out of his way to assure Chinese premier Wen Jiabao,
during his visit to Washington in December, that no
change in Washington's "One China" policy was
contemplated did Beijing start to calm down. Even so it
remains agitated about Chen's favorable chance of being
re-elected and about the somewhat milder referenda he is
determined to go ahead with. Another crisis between the
two is certainly on the cards. Last time President Bill
Clinton had to deploy two aircraft-carriers in a show of
force to cool tempers on both sides.
While there can be no question that the pushy
democrats in Taiwan have both history and right on their
side, they also have to be pragmatic. With two (three if
Europe is included) great powers against it how can
Taiwan maneuver to keep its freedom?
Taiwan has to play a long game. Time is Taiwan's
friend. If Taiwan is changing fast so is China. China in
ten or twenty years' time could be a democracy. In Hong
Kong there is a great deal of agitation for full
elections. Before very long people in China itself will
be asking why they can't elect a president if the
Taiwanese can. Then it is not inconceivable to imagine
that a democratic China and a new generation could lose
their obsession with incorporating Taiwan.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2004 By
JONATHAN POWER
Follow this
link to read about - and order - Jonathan Power's book
written for the
40th Anniversary of
Amnesty International
"Like
Water on Stone - The Story of Amnesty
International"
Tell a friend about this article
Send to:
From:
Message and your name
 
|