Wednesday's
publication of the
Hutton report could lead to
Blair's demise
By
Jonathan
Power
January 28, 2004
LONDON - Prime Minister Tony Blair is the type of
man who will go to his grave insisting that he was right.
Only a leader of his moral certitude could have revamped
the riven Labor party into the disciplined vote winning
machine it has become. Whatever happens in British
politics this week- and his resignation is a distinct
possibility- and however much he is criticized in the
report of judge Lord James Hutton on the suicide of David
Kelly, Britain's top expert on Iraq's chemical and
biological weapons, Blair will insist that he was right
to have backed President George Bush in his decision to
go to war with Iraq. If Margaret Thatcher was, in her own
words, a "lady not for turning", Blair is a politician
who says to himself "je ne regret rien" and, grey faced
and exhausted though he looks according to intimates,
believes he has done the right thing.
But the facts will remain to challenge him. At best he
has done the right thing after giving the wrong reasons.
At worst he joined in an unnecessary war, that took
thousands of innocent Iraqi lives as well as those
of coalition troops, and won the authority of
parliament and the support of the country to do this on
manifestly false pretences.
If you are one of those who believe that, whatever the
discussion about whether or not Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction, it was simply a good thing that a dictator
of such proven bestiality was removed from power then
there is a temptation to support Blair (and Bush)
whatever evidence comes to light this week with the
Hutton report or, indeed, in the future when the archives
are opened. As Blair said, when speaking before the U.S.
Congress in July, Saddam Hussein was a murderous tyrant
and that in itself was enough justification for going to
war.
Fair enough- especially if you put on one side that by
doing this you rammed a jagged hole through the Charter
of the UN and you laid down a precedent for other powers
to go too easily to war- but then in a democracy you
should at least be upfront and honest about it. If Tony
Blair had made this case and won the votes at home to
back it he would now be on the moral high ground. But he
and Bush didn't and Blair who led the argument about the
certitude of there being weapons of mass destruction and
gave the critical lines to Bush for insertion into his
State of the Union address has been shown from the
evidence presented to Hutton to be saying one thing
whilst doing another. There can be no doubt that while
Blair was telling parliament, the people and the world at
large that the evidence was incontrovertible he and
his closest advisors felt that they had to work on
toughening the presentation of the evidence given him by
the intelligence agencies. Not only did he set out to
mislead the public he apparently allowed himself to be
swayed by evidence that he judged was not strong enough
to convince a skeptical public. This surely is the fatal
flaw in Blair's character, as it is in many people who
are over sure of their own righteousness. Moral certitude
can be a very good thing for getting things done but it
becomes dangerous when you cut corners with the truth-
and maybe not only with the public but, as looks likely
in this case, even with one self.
I don't believe that Tony Blair is a craven liar. I
don't believe that he is an evil man. I do believe he is
sincere in his religious beliefs and tries to do the
right thing. But in this case I conclude that he
got on the slippery slope of beefing up the wording
of what he felt was somewhat ambiguous intelligence
assessments because in his heart he held two visceral
convictions. One that Saddam was truly irredeemably
wicked and, second, that America had to be supported if
Britain was going to continue to gain the ear of an
American president.
These essentials have been clouded by two things.
First, by the BBC's lack of editorial discipline with its
news reporting and, second, by the suicide of David
Kelly. The BBC has attempted to clear the air before the
publication of the Hutton report by making a fulsome mea
culpa. But, by its nature, one can never be absolutely
sure of the reasons for a suicide and whatever Hutton
surmises can never be more than guesswork.
In consequence by the end of the week parliament and
public opinion will still be left with the question- was
it right for Britain to go to war? It will be on a
knife-edge which way opinion will swing. And thus,
whether Blair stays or goes.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2004 By
JONATHAN POWER
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