London's
anti-war protestors should
realize that the "Big Six"
are discovering peace
By
Jonathan
Power
November 19, 2003
LONDON - The micro picture is disturbing. Not since
Vietnam have America and its allies seemed so bogged down
in wars that are not going well. There is much to protest
about.
Yet paradoxically the big picture is remarkably good-
a state of affairs the anti-Bush protestors in London
appear to overlook. Not since 1870-1913 have the big
powers been so at peace with each other. Moreover, the
present peace is built more securely than was the balance
of power that kept the peace for most of the nineteenth
and early twentieth centuries. (Peace also reigned
between 1815 and 1854.) Today's big powers- the
U.S., the European Union, Russia, Japan, China, and we
should add India, appear to have no major quarrel with
each other, no outstanding major issues (apart from the
future of Taiwan which is now being handled remarkably
amicably) that could bring them to war. All six exhibit
most of the time an urge to keep the likelihood of
conflict serious enough that it might lead to saber
rattling and then to war right upstairs in the attic
along with the folios of old quarrels that have
now been either made up or simply become
anachronistic.
Perhaps we do have to thank George Bush for at least
some of this achievement. He has made Russia much more a
partner of U.S. foreign policy than any predecessor since
Roosevelt. He has managed to keep the period of bitter
estrangement with the anti- Iraq war faction of European
countries down to a matter of a few months; on most
issues differences are argued over in a civilized manner.
With Japan relations have long been good in their
essentials, despite the tensions that have developed from
Japan's economic crisis. With India Bush has worked hard
to end India's reflex anti-Americanism and has not
sought, in return for America's new friendliness, to
demand that New Delhi step back from its long
relationship with Moscow.
But the biggest change of all has been the
relationship with China. Since China has improved its
external rapport on every front with all five of the
other big powers perhaps this has something to do with
changes in China rather than some feat of American
diplomacy. But it would be churlish to belittle Bush's
achievement since he has clearly been more than ready to
reciprocate China's steps towards amicability.
China over the last decade has made significant
changes in its foreign policy. Since 1991 China has
settled border conflicts with Russia, Vietnam,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Laos. With India China has
worked to sharply to reduce tensions on their disputed
border. At the UN, from the mid 1990s on, China has moved
away from simply abstaining on Chapter 7 resolutions in
the Security Council. In November 2002 it even voted for
Resolution 1441 on weapons inspections in Iraq. On the
issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons, which if left
untended could provoke the U.S. into a high risk policy
of direct confrontation and Japan into developing nuclear
weapons, it has moved recently to become the key figure
in resolving the present stand-off. Even with Taiwan,
where it continues to exhibit nervousness over the
island's efforts to maintain its independence, it seems
to have taken a big step backwards from its threatening
"missile tests" in 1965 and 1966. Today China acts in a
more tolerant manner and is concentrating more on the
mutually beneficial economic relationship and less on the
divisive political issues.
This big picture harmony, singular in itself, is all
the more an achievement given the intensity of today's
ongoing conflicts between Palestine and Israel, in Iraq
and Afghanistan and possibly between India and Pakistan,
not to mention the continuing African wars. Superficially
it might seem that the closing of the ranks of the "big
six" has something to do with al Qaeda and September
11th. It has certainly helped- and that makes it all but
certain that in time both Osama bin Laden and Saddam
Hussein will be captured- but the root causes of this
amazing rapprochement go deeper than that.
One could hazard that is has something to do with the
peaceful way Mikhail Gorbachev brought an end to the Cold
War and that it owes a lot to the much derided fast pace
of economic globalization that has intertwined economies
like never before. Even that cannot explain it all.
Surely it has much to do with the rapid spread of
democratization and a respect for human rights. Even
China is becoming more open. Add to that the way the
explosion of the internet has broken down borders and
spread both ideas and culture, one of which is a growing
impulse by democratic electorates to avoid war whenever
possible. And, if we are honest, it owes something to
Bush's steady hand on some, if not all, of the major
issues of U.S. foreign policy.
Do our politicians realize what is happening? And can
they build on it? They must.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2003 By
JONATHAN POWER
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link to read about - and order - Jonathan Power's book
written for the
40th Anniversary of
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"Like
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