|
India
has the chance to match China
By
Jonathan
Power
October 30, 2002
New Delhi - The slumbering giant may be about to
awaken again. The danger of returning to the Hindu growth
rate will be washed away at next year's election. The era
of indecision and drift, with only the decision to become
an open nuclear weapons state as evidence of
decisiveness, will hopefully be consigned to the dustbin
of history. This is how senior members of the Congress
party would like it to be - and maybe they are largely
right, although very few in the electorate of the largest
democracy in the world will forget that while Congress,
the party of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, led
their country to independence from the British, it also
produced the "emergency" of Mrs Indira Gandhi (Nehru's
daughter) when democracy was suspended and when it
finally was allowed to return she was swept out of
office, and the corruption of the administration of Rajiv
Gandhi, her son.
This time, say the optimists, it will be different.
The murder of Mrs Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards and the
murder of her son Rajiv by a Tamil militant has left the
party in the hands of Sonia, the Italian born wife of
Rajiv. Can this shy housewife of limited formal education
preside effectively over a country that has to make hard
decisions on how fast and far to expand its nuclear
armoury, how to deal with Pakistan and its attempt to
wrestle the Indian state of Kashmir into Pakistani hands,
and how to get India to return to the high growth rates
of the previous Congress government so that it can match
China's and in so doing make serous inroads on bettering
the conditions of its hundreds of million of impoverished
who live still mainly on the land?
In recent years India has been torn by intercommunal
violence of quite frightening proportions, mainly aimed
against Muslims, but also against Christians. Hindu
nationalism took political form in the present Bharatiya
Janata party government and although it has been presided
over by Atal Behari Vajpayee, a prime minister of
enormous intelligence, he has not been able in his old
age to control the rabid wings of his party and its
affiliates with the sureness of touch that India needs.
Indeed his premiership reflects a problem that cuts
across the political dividing line - the tendency for the
political parties, when not choosing a leader from the
Nehru dynasty, to gravitate to an older leader,
preferably one who has had major heart surgery and whose
grip on both the country and the party is less than
tough.
Can Mrs Sonia Gandhi be that person? The grieving,
undereducated widow has become a political force in her
own right. After years of resisting those who wanted her
to step into her husband"s shoes she finally three years
ago allowed herself to be prevailed upon to take over the
Congress leadership. The party was visibly disintegrating
after years of internecine feuding and the men she
respected in the party told her that she was the only
unifying force. Many in her circle call her "Kungi
Kureya", Hindi for a mute doll. I have to say I disagree.
She has been a fast learner of complex matters and it's
not her fault that it takes an individual a lifetime to
master on the one hand, economics or on the other nuclear
strategy. She knows her inadequacies, she knows she has
made a late start but she is diligently working to
overcome them by reading and discussion. Her mind is both
fresh and agile and - although of no committed practising
religious belief - her Catholic value system gives her an
anchor in a turbulent sea. Above all she is, as one high
placed advisor but sharp critic told me, "a good
person".
Arguably her most important advisor is Manmohan Singh.
If she hadn't stepped out of the shadows he would
probably have become party leader. But he is one of those
exceptional men, a brilliant economist who is widely
regarded as the architect of India's break out from the
Hindu growth rate, but is also exceedingly modest and
self-effacing. On his abilities will rest a large part of
the success of a Congress government. At the end of the
day, whatever mistakes are made in foreign policy or
Kashmir policy, the electorate will support a continuing
Congress government only if it delivers the economic
goods. Along with many outside experts, Singh regards
China's economic statistics as containing a large amount
of wishful thinking. Rather than its recent growth rates
being in the phenomenal 8-10% range it is more likely to
be around 6.5%, the rate he aspires India to achieve.
"China's success is probably a consistent 6%+ growth rate
for 20 years. There is no reason we can't do the same".
Then he hopes the large amounts of foreign capital flows
that have aided the Chinese lift off will start to flow
to India.
This begs the question of Kashmir. If India can't find
an alternative to its constant state of war readiness
with Pakistan it can never hope to realize its economic
potential. That nettle Congress will have to grasp if it
is to succeed. Then it will remain a slumbering giant -
and deservedly so.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2002 By
JONATHAN POWER
Follow this
link to read about - and order - Jonathan Power's book
written for the
40th Anniversary of
Amnesty International
"Like
Water on Stone - The Story of Amnesty
International"
Tell a friend about this article
Send to:
From:
Message and your name
 
|