Can
America help Libya
become more normal?
By JONATHAN
POWER
May 16th. 2001
LONDON - There was a time when it looked as if America
and Libya were set on a dead-end course whose
destructiveness was all but self-defeating. Its nadir was
President Ronald Reagan's decision in 1986 to bomb Libya,
attempting to kill Colonel Mu'ammar Qaddafi, and in the
end killing his adopted daughter. Libya's withering
response was to blow up in mid air a Pan American
airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, for which crime a
Libyan intelligence agent was found guilty in a special
court four months ago
Yet the two countries have managed, very slowly, to
repair their antagonistic and fruitless relationship.
Outsiders may consider that they have taken an
unnecessarily tortuous road to get there but,
nevertheless, where they are today is a different place
than a decade ago. This is an achievement worthy of note.
War, always a possibility, was avoided. Yet still the
antagonism lingers, on both sides. Only this week rancour
raised its ugly head once more when it became apparent
that Wintershall, a German oil company was seeking
permission from Libya to drill in oil fields that
formerly belonged to American companies whose operations
have been frozen by U.S. sanctions since 1986. It has
brought to a head a debate that was anyway due to erupt
in August when the U.S. Congress is scheduled to discuss
whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, which
imposes severe penalties on foreign companies that invest
in those countries.
Why is the U.S. holding out on sanctions? After the
successful conclusion of the Lockerbie trial UN sanctions
were lifted without opposition from Washington. There is
reason enough for the U.S. to call it a day and, whilst
Qaddafi's Libya remains a rather unpleasant place, the
regime has changed almost beyond recognition in the last
three years. For the future, engagement would be a better
tool of persuasion than further punitive sanctions and
ostracism. Yet Washington has a problem, a perennial and
serious one. It is not very good at deciding a future
strategy when it has had a success. Having defeated the
Soviet Union and European communism it wasn't able to
come up with an effective plan for mutual nuclear
disarmament. Having persuaded North Korea to halt its
nuclear weapons development it has prevaricated about the
two Koreas' desire to engage in reconciliation. Having
had, in President Bill Clinton's own judgement, more
effect with the UN Iraq disarmament commission than it
did with the whole course of the Gulf War in disarming
Iraq of its potential weapons of mass destruction, it
wasn't able to call it a day and re-engage with Saddam
Hussein to build a more open and positive
relationship.
With Libya the same reflexes are at work. After
decades of militancy Libya now appears to be
accommodating itself to international norms. But
Washington continues to behave as if nothing much has
changed. The U.S. is fighting yesterday's battle, when
Qaddafi, flush with oil money and the energy of
revolution, believed he had a call from God to undermine
the West, destroy Israel and subvert black Africa to the
south. Protected by the Soviet Union, hailed in many
parts of the Third World, most importantly on the Arab
street, he was able to write checques and ship guns to
liberation movements, secessionists and terrorists from
the Philippines to Argentina. But the blowing up of an
American airliner was one step too far and it coincided
with the days of change in the Soviet Union. Qaddafi was
not Gorbachev's cup of tea and Russia made no attempt to
help when Libya was hung out to dry.
The sanctions have taken their toll. The World Bank
reckons Libya has lost a good $18 billion in oil revenue.
Qaddafi found to his cost that not even the lure of oil
could tempt major countries to break the embargo. Splits
within the ruling circle became apparent and hard liners
found themselves purged. Shortly after Qaddafi accepted
the UN demand for a trial of the Lockerbie suspects he
announced, "the world has changed radically and
drastically. The methods and ideas should change, and
being a revolutionary and a progressive man, I have to
follow this movement". In September last year he made a
speech proclaiming an end to his long-standing
anti-imperialist struggle.
According to Ray Takeyh, writing in the current issue
of Foreign Affairs, there are three outstanding issues
that the U.S. says make rapprochement still impossible.
They are Libya's support for terrorism, its attempts to
acquire weapons of mass destruction and its opposition to
the Arab-Israeli peace process. But, as Mr Takeyh argues,
Washington overstates the dividing issues. Libya's
support of terrorists is now dead in the water. There is
no chance Libya could develop a nuclear weapon and its
development of chemical weapons is not highly
sophisticated. As for Israel, Libya no longer rushes arms
and aid to Palestinian militants.
U.S. policy needs to change from stick to carrot.
Europe already has changed step, perhaps too quickly
without waiting for Qaddafi to compensate the families of
those who died on board the crashed airliner. Still this
is the time to make a deal: sanctions should be allowed
to lapse in August if compensation is paid and the U.S.
would then encourage the U.S. oil industry to return in
strength. The struggle would not end there. Libya needs
to be induced to sign the treaty outlawing chemical
weapons. The outside world needs to make sure that Libya
doesn't spend its new oil revenues on arms purchases. But
this is politics as normal and the U.S. working with
Europe is powerful enough to offer plenty of incentives.
Rogues can be rehabilitated. It just needs a measure of
courage and perception to know when the time is
right.
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Copyright © 2001 By
JONATHAN POWER
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