The
Horror of Rwanda Leaves a
Confusing Legacy
By JONATHAN
POWER
Jan 19, 2000
LONDON- The United Nations mandate for policing the truce
in the Congo expired this week, without the 500 military
observers requested by the Secretary-General ever being sent
into the field. It remains to be seen whether the Security
Council's recent decision to send a 6,000 strong force to
police the very tentative truce in Sierra Leone will be
acted on. At the moment it seems more than doubtful. The
outside world appears to be almost frozen in its tracks when
it comes to dealing with African civil wars. In Somalia the
UN pulled out, after the grisly death of 18 American
soldiers. In Angola, the UN pulled its peacekeepers out last
year after years of apparently fruitless wear and tear. And
in Rwanda, the scene of the worst genocide since the killing
fields of Cambodia, the UN is accused of turning a blind eye
in its moment of need.
The horror of Rwanda will not go away. It lives on like
the holocaust, keeping thinking people awake at night, as
they struggle with their consciences over what they failed
to do and what they might do to avoid a similar situation
next time. Just over a year ago on his African safari
President Bill Clinton personally admitted fault. And
earlier this month Kofi Annan, the UN's Secretary-General,
made an abject apology following an inquiry made by the
former Swedish prime minister, Ingvar Carlsson. Yet we err
if we think they should have known what exactly was going
on, before it was too late. And we err more if we think that
even when we do know what is happening in a civil war
military intervention is a straightforward panacea.
In an interesting piece of detective work, published in
the new issue of Foreign Affairs, Alan Kuperman shows that
one major reason why the world failed to act to halt the
carnage of Tutsis by Hutus in Rwanda- the fastest genocide
in recorded history- was that the reporting was so poor that
not until it was nearly over did we know what was going on.
So much for "the CNN effect".
The genocidal violence began on April 7th, 1994. But, as
Kuperman shows, "Mr Clinton [or any other outside
leader] could not have known that there was a nationwide
genocide under way until about April 20th".
Just a few days into the genocide the New York Times
reported that "fighting had diminished in intensity". Three
days later Le Monde wrote, "a strange calm reigns in
downtown Kigali (the capital)". Only on April 18th did a
Belgian radio station question the journalistic consensus,
explaining accurately that the decline in the reports of
violence was because "most foreigners had left, including
journalists".
Human Rights Watch, an American non-governmental
organisation, made the first correct guestimate when on
April 20th it said that "as many as 100,000 people may have
died." The Red Cross followed the next day with a press
release saying "hundreds of thousands" may have died.
It has been said time and time again, if only the UN had
responded to the request of General Romeo Dallaire, the UN's
man on the spot, made on April 10th, for 5,000 more troops,
the worst of the carnage could have been headed off. But the
importance of Kuperman's analysis- aside from demonstrating
the widespread ignorance- is that it shows that a last
minute intervention could not have saved most of the Tutsis
from their Hutu killers. Even a U.S. light infantry ready
brigade of 5,000 men would have required a week after
receiving orders to begin significant operations in Rwanda.
And even then it could have only carried out limited
operations until its equipment arrived a few days later.
Thus, even if Dallaire's telegram had been acted on half of
the genocide would have been already completed. Dallaire
himself was unaware of what was going on outside the capital
and in all probability the arriving troops would have stayed
in Kigali. If, indeed, Dallaire had known what was going on
all over the country 5,000 troops would not have been
enough; it would have required a good 15,000. Transporting
such a force to a landlocked country with limited airfields
would not have been a quick business. It would have taken
two weeks to get enough troops and equipment sufficient to
attempt a halt to the fighting.
If there was a time to have intervened on a large scale
it was, in fact, way back in January. That is when the
moderate Hutu government was still in power desperately
trying to keep Hutu militants in check. (These moderates
were one of the first to be murdered when the killing
began.) This is when both that government and its old
colonial power, Belgium, were arguing for a major UN
intervention. (There was a small force on the ground, under
Dallaire's command. ) But the U.S. and Britain quashed the
idea, arguing that the cost was prohibitive and that
peacekeepers would be endangered, as they had been in
Somalia the previous October.
What does one deduce from this? Yes, the obvious. We have
to use our imaginations to better anticipate situations. But
it is not as simple as that. Each of the recent
interventions around the world teaches a different lesson.
Somalia taught us not to allow peacekeeping troops to start
to fight like an invading army. Haiti taught us even a
successful military occupation by outsiders may not change
the fundamental antagonisms that undermine society. Bosnia
teaches us that after there has been an awful war military
intervention can buy a little time for reconstruction, but
it can't make a precariously unbalanced political situation
stable. Kosovo taught us that military intervention can,
first, precipitate the situation it is supposed to forestall
and, second, substitute one problem (Albanian terror) for
what preceded it (Serb terror).
The intervention debate has become impaled on the horn of
multiple dilemmas. No wonder the Security Council becomes so
often deadlocked on these issues. No wonder even when it
votes to do something it finds no member countries want to
risk their troops to implement the decision.
If the UN needs to beef up anything it needs to beef up
its preventive diplomacy. That means developing a large
cadre of people- not just a lone troubleshooter who flies in
to meet the president- which can go into a situation of
conflict, stay a year or two or more and work at every level
of society, not just the very top. There is a model for this
in the work of the Swedish Transnational Foundation for
Peace and Future Research. But that requires a further
column next week.
Copyright © 2000 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
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