At Last, the
Opportunity to Allow Turkey to Join the European
Union
By JONATHAN
POWER
Sept.22, 1999
LONDON- Quite shortly now, if he hasn't already, Turkish
prime minister Bulent Ecevit will have to make up his mind
whether the state should procede with the execution of the
Kurdish terrorist leader, Abdullah Ocalan. On this decision
Turkey's future as a serious contender for entry to the
European Union is going to hang or fall.
Well, that is what a good many commentators were saying
three months ago, on the conclusion of his trial. Yet,
today, following the devastating earthquake in Turkey of
August 17th and the serious, but rather less severe one in
Greece three weeks' later, it looks as if Turkey has been
allowed a new look at the starting line for entry into the
European Union, without delivering any promises about Ocalan
or indeed about any of the other large hurdles it supposedly
has to cross- a new deal for the Kurds (the world's largest
ethnic group without a state), reform of the judicial and
penal system, the abolition of torture and a willingness to
come to terms over divided Cyprus. All these issues over the
years have not just kept Turkey's long promised membership
on hold, they have encouraged senior politicians led by
former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl to campaign actively
against the prospect of a Muslim state becoming part of a
homogeneous Christian Europe.
If "nationalism is the last refuge of the scoundrel", it
is in this peculiar case, where nationalism runs deeper and
more irrationally than in any other part of Europe, bar the
Balkans, been totally turned on its head by natural
disaster. The nationalism of arch rivalry and paranoidal
distrust between Turkey and Greece has been transfigured
into a profound awareness of common humanity and shared
destiny.
To find a convincing explanation for the volte-face is
not easy, other than that ordinary people can be led by
their better emotions, whatever they've said for years in
the newspapers or in the bars.
But what is sure is that such emotions evaporate as
quickly as they effervesce, unless a society's leaders,
political, religious and social, quickly take up the baton.
That this has been done, not least by the foreign minister
of Greece, George Papandreou, whose father when prime
minister made sure Greece would stymie any move to bring
Turkey into the heart of Europe is, indeed, an historic
milestone.
Thus far the new chemistry is working wonders, seemingly
dissipating almost overnight centuries of mistrust that go
back to Greece's long occupation by the Ottoman Turks. The
mean spirited effort to undermine the other's standing has
become, since the Turkish occupation in 1974 of a
substantial part of Cyprus, an art form.
Yet it was usually a lopsided battle and Greece
inevitably always won. Greece won accession to the European
Union while Turkey was rebuffed, even though economically
there was not much difference between them. The Greek part
of Cyprus prospered; Turkey's stagnated. Human rights,
prison conditions and police behaviour steadily improved in
Greece. In Turkey, whilst there is progress it is a treacly
kind of movement, that often gets stuck for years. Only in
the advancement of women could Turkey be said to be
ahead.
And, always, like a massive albatross around its neck,
there has been the perennial issue of Turkey's minority
Kurdish people and the future of divided Cyprus.
Since these latter two, in particular, are still stuck in
a deep rut, the new dispensation between the two
anatagonists is quite remarkable. Yet, not even high class
politicans- and both Papandreou and Ecevit are a cut above
the average- can keep the top spinning on a smooth road just
on post-earthquake good will. If there are not tangible
results quickly the popular surge of benign feelings towards
the other will burn away as soon as the next, inevitable,
clash of interest, catches fire.
This brings the argument back to the execution of Ocalan
and, more than that, Turkey's relationship with its Kurds.
For it is that issue, above all others, that poisons the
relationship with the European Union.
It is not a straightforward matter. The fact that Mr
Ecevit has been a long-time capital punishment abolitionist
is almost irrelevant. If the army that has always called the
shots on the Kurdish issue decides it is imperative that
Ocalan be killed, it will simply engineer Ecevit's
replacement if his personal beliefs are the stumbling
block.
The army, heirs to Ataturk's legacy of the secular,
singular, state, has waged a cruel war against Kurdish
demands for cultural identity. Ocalan, for his part, has led
a no-holds barred guerrilla force, whose demands for
independence have been so extreme that most Kurds still
spurn his cause. In elections most Kurds vote for one of the
secular parties, rather than the pro-Kurdish one.
Perhaps to save his life, or perhaps as an act of
statesmanship (and to be fair he has been offering
compromises for a good two years before his arrest), Ocalan
on September 1st ordered his troops to stop fighting. There
has never been a more opportune time to change tack. Indeed,
sources within Turkey's high command have started to suggest
publically, and even more ernestly privately, that some sort
of compromise with Kurdish grievances could be considered.
As the Welsh in Britain now have their own native language
schools and broadcasting outlets so might the Kurds have
theirs.
With political movement of this order at work in Turkey
this must be the moment for the European Union to strike.
The Europeans should say: We expect Turkey to join along
with the first entry from eastern Europe in 2005, if not
sooner. But, of course, we expect Turkey to be up to
standard, not just in fiscal and monetary policy but in
legal, social and constitutional matters if we are going to
resolve entry issues speedily. Turkey's political and
military establishment will know exactly what Europe means
and the pressure within Turkey be will be on to deliver the
goods. (Earlier this month, for example, the president of
Turkey's appeal court, Sami Selcuk, said that the
constitution had a legitimacy "close to zero".)
Before, Turkey has been beaten with a European stick-
"you will not be considered unless...."- a totally negative
approach that has produced minimal returns. Now is the time
for carrot, if an historic occasion of opportunity is not to
be passed up.
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
|