North Korea's
Light in the Tunnel
By JONATHAN
POWER
Aug 4, 1999
LONDON- Although you would not know it from Madeleine
Albright, the North Korean rocket you can see coming towards
you could be a light at the end of the tunnel! The North
Koreans are at it again but, each time, fearing the worst,
the U.S. and Japan get into a serious panic. They have
convinced themselves of a mighty calamity. The U.S. , Japan
and South Korea have now threatened a total embargo of the
renegade outlaw country if it dare test-fire its new
inter-continental ballistic missile. But it should not be a
cause for fear, rather the excuse for some highly creative
diplomacy.
First, there was the row in 1994 over the plutonium-rich
cooling rods unloaded from North Korea's main nuclear
reactor. Washington convinced itself that North Korea was on
a fast-track to building an armoury of nuclear weapons.
President Bill Clinton was heavily leaned on to threaten war
with the North. Only an intelligence report that told him he
could lose 52,000 American soldiers stayed his hand.
Ex-president Jimmy Carter jumped into the breach and in a
private meeting with the North's ageing dictator, Kim Il
Sung, won a reprieve that gave the Administration time to
fashion a compromise.
The essence of the deal was a straightforward trade off,
with the North promising not to make use of this source of
plutonium and build a stock of nuclear weapons. In return,
Japan and South Korea (with a token bit of money from the
U.S.) agreed to build two state of the art, non-plutonium
producing, light water reactors to provide much of the
North's electricity needs far into the future. The U.S. also
promised to end its trade boycott and move towards
diplomatic recognition.
Since then mini crisis has followed upon mini crisis, all
the time stirred by a stand off between the U.S. Congress
(which refused to honour the ending of trade sanctions) and
North Korea which has found that the only diplomacy that
produces results is to rattle its sabres.
In the last twelve months mini crises have been overtaken
by a maxi ones. Earlier this year U.S. satellites discovered
a big hole in the ground which the intelligence experts said
was a site for exploding triggers for nuclear weapons. North
Korea suggested that for a sizeable fee they would allow the
U.S. to look it over. After much haggling Washington paid
up, albeit more in food relief for the near to starving
country than cash.
This had come hard on the heels of last August when the
North test-flew a new medium range rocket. It claimed it was
only trying to launch a satellite. The truth of that, much
debated at the time, is clouded in obscurity. The
trajectory, however, took the rocket over Japan, provoking
immense nervousness, amplified in Washington, about the
North's military intentions. The row subsided, partly
because it was possible that North Korea was doing no more
than launching a communications satellite; partly because
the matter got subsumed in the matter of the "hole".
But now the planned launch of the newer and longer range
rocket has breathed fire into the dying embers of the old
rows. Once again North Korea is branded as a rogue nation
out to threaten the West. This rocket, it is said, could
reach Alaska or Hawaii.
U.S. Congressional opinion, long nervous about the
North's intentions, is threatening a total embargo. The
White House has followed suit and lined up Japan and South
Korea behind its tough stance.
The dramatic shift in policy could turn out to be
enormously counterproductive. After all North Korea, crazy
and malevolent though it may be, offers little real threat.
It's a tiny country of 24 million people, with an
insignificant national income and a hungry populace. It does
have a cadre of talented scientists who, with Chinese help,
have made formidable progress in rocketry. It is doubtful,
however, that Chinese aid would extend to the ultra
sophisticated business of attaching workable warheads of
mass destruction, even if North Korea had them (and
miniturised them), which it probably doesn't.
These are rockets, at worst, built to carry only ordinary
high explosive. No different on impact from the missiles
that hit Yugoslavia in the recent war, enough to take out a
bridge or- in the case of the Chinese embassy- a largish
building. But not enough, as General Wesley Clark, the Nato
Supreme Commander, has observed, " to inhibit courting
couples enjoying moonlit walks".Being against rockets today
is rather like being against mobile phones. What else do you
expect in 1999?
In all likelihood, this planned launch is just another
attempt by the beleaguered regime in North Korea to bludgeon
the West into paying it another bribe. The blackmailer, once
successful, always returns for more.
In 1994 Washington decided bribery was better than war.
Why should it change track now? To impose a full boycott
would mean refusing to finish building the light water
reactors. That would free the North from its promise not to
use its source of plutonium to build nuclear weapons.
Until now North Korea has broken no promises, nor broken
any solemn international agreements on the deployment of
missiles. (A few years ago the U.S. missed a singular
opportunity to forestall such developments when it decided
not to push for a world treaty that would limit the
deployment of new rockets.)
Call North Korea's latest plans blackmail- no less, but
no more than this. But if paying it off ensures the peace
for long enough for more benign influences to begin to work
and ameliorate the North's hard regime it will have been
worth every penny.
The crisis should be exploited for an historic
compromise: one that will give the North what it obviously
craves for, American recognition and easy trade and
investment. In return the North should make a public
commitment that it has no hostile intentions on any country.
That would be a light in the sky.
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
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