Answer to
Clinton's Recent Speech in Europe: the Ambiguities of the
Use of Force
By JONATHAN
POWER
July 7, 1999
LONDON- "An unpleasant truth often overlooked is that
although war is a great evil, it does have a great virtue:
it can resolve political conflicts and lead to peace". Thus
writes Edward Luttwak in the new issue of Foreign Affairs.
The end of the bombing of Yugoslavia is a case in point. It
ended with both sides fairly claiming victory- the Western
allies got the Yugoslav army removed from Kosovo and the
Serbs won agreement from NATO that it would disarm the
Kosovo Liberation Army and shelve its previous promise to
the Kosovars to hold a referendum on Kosovo's political
status.
This makes possible an honest negociation over the future
of Kosovo, with both sides able to get what they most want.
The Albanian Kosovars want the partition of Kosovo and the
incorporation of their part into a Greater Albania; the
Serbs want the incorporation of the Serbian part of Bosnia
into Yugoslavia and title to the traditionally
Serbian-dominated part of Kosovo in the north.
Whether this all happens will depend on a lot of new
thinking in Western capitals. Yes, it is possible after this
war, but whether the chance will be taken remains an open
question.
The tragedy of war or violence is not that sometimes it
doesn't have positive outcomes, it is that these same goals
could have been met without war, if the protaganists had
only been more far-sighted, wiser, more prepared to be
patient and creative in their diplomacy and less bellicose
in their confrontation. No other situation has dramatised
this point as well as the recent war. The positives are yet
to come- and at the moment the West seems too hidebound to
go for them. And the negatives are all too apparent- the
creation of a great army of refugees and the massive
destruction of Kosovar property, far in excess of the damage
that might have been caused by Milosevic's army if there had
been no bombing.
Tossing such arguments back and forth should also make us
think about another angle to the war conundrum. Why, if ,as
many think, war can resolve problems, don't we allow the
quarrelers sort the issues out themselves? Unlesss our own
national interest is directly imperilled why don't we let
the belligerents become exhausted or let one win
decisively?
If outsiders intervene and impose an armistice does it
not just put a conflict on hold? As in Bosnia it probably
puts war on the freezer shelf to be taken out and thawed
ready for another round at a later date.
During the Cold War years the geo-political temptation of
the two superpowers was often to intervene and if they then
got too involved with their respective proxies they would
decide to effectively collaborate in using the UN Security
Council to impose a cease-fire. Often enough, this was only
in the late stages of a conflict, as with the many Middle
East wars, but it happened because neither Washington nor
Moscow could afford to be drawn in too deeply on opposing
sides, as there was always the dangerous possibility they
would end up confronting each other with nuclear
weapons.
Today, post Cold War, the big powers, essentially the
Western ones, get involved in trying to impose a peace not
to placate Moscow but rather their own publics who have been
disturbed and aroused by harrowing pictures and reportage
from the latest ethnic cleansing.
And now President Bill Clinton, the Kosovo "success"
under his belt, boldly announces on his recent European
trip: "Whether you live in Africa or Central Europe or any
other place, if somebody comes after innocent civilians and
tries to kill them en masse because of their race, their
ethnic background or their religion, and it's within our
power to stop it, we will stop it". Apparently, he judges it
a mistake that the U.S. ran from Somalia and used its veto
muscle to get the UN to withdraw its peacekeepers from
Rwanda. Now it is all to"fight the good fight", albeit from
the safety of 15,000 feet.
But what's the long term outcome? Does not outside
intervention and subsequent pacification merely give time
for would-be belligerents to reconstitute and rearm their
forces? If the history of civil wars this century says
anything it suggests that more often peace arrives when
there is a clear cut victory by one side. If no party is
threatened by defeat and loss what incentive do they have to
negociate a lasting settlement?
Moreover, there is an ancillary problem of western
intervention, whether the troops go in or not:war these days
is characterised by a rush of good works. Every organisation
from the Red Cross to the notorious Japanese agency that
sent lactating mothers to Cambodia can appear almost
overnight on the scene. It is the human impulse at its best
but, again, the tragedy is that it can prolong war. William
Shawcross' seminal study of the war in Cambodia, "The
Quality of Mercy", showed beyond a shadow of a doubt how
both voluntary organisations and UN agenices, by feeding
refugees on the Thai border, restored to health and
well-being the genocidal Khmer Rouge fighters from Cambodia.
Again, the massive aid to the huge refugee camps of Hutus
expelled from Rwanda has kept the pogrom leaders fed,
clothed, healthy and ready to lead more Tutsi-killing raids
across the border. The same point can be made about the UN
camps set up immediately after the 1948-49 Arab-Israeli war.
They turned the Palestinians into life-long refugees and
ensured that Arab-Israeli emnity was well stoked.
The Kosovo experience should make us re-think our
attitudes, as Mr Clinton suggests. But perhaps a better way
to go is to return to some of the old style UN peacekeeping-
only going in when both sides have decided they don't want
to fight and they want a disinterested party to hold the
ring. Similarly, the aid organisations must learn to
discipline themselves to think through more carefully the
consequences of their actions. And as for those well-trained
NATO troops- they should limit themselves to forming
high-powered posses to snatch those leaders who have been
indicted by the International Criminal Court, and bring them
to trial in The Hague. The truth is it is usually evil,
peculiarly motivated, leaders who are responsible for
whipping up the passions that end in ethnic cleansing, not
ordinary people. Take these two or three out and the
situation will often calm down. It is surely better than
eleven weeks of aerial bombardment which brought
disproportionate suffering to rank and file Yugoslavs. War
may or may not solve problems, but it is a terribly blunt
instrument. Can't we be a little cleverer?
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
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