The U.S. and
North Korea Could be
Heading for the Nuclear Abyss
By JONATHAN
POWER
Jan. 13th, 1999
LONDON - If it's eight years since the Gulf War and
Saddam Hussein still rules then it is as well not to forget
it's 46 years since the end of the Korean War and Kim Il
Sung still rules. Well, although dead, he is still "Eternal
President", whilst his son, Kim Jong Il manages day to day
mortal affairs from his position as Secretary General of the
Korean Workers' Party.
In terms of danger posed to the outside world North Korea
is a much greater threat than Iraq. North Korea is much
further ahead in the outcasts' rush to produce an arsenal of
weapons of mass destruction. It clearly has the capacity to
develop--and may well have long ago built--nuclear weapons.
And it is not far short of being able to construct an
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. Last August it sent a
three stage rocket hurtling over Japan--in an attempt to
launch a satellite, it claimed.
Saddam Hussein throws down the gauntlet by making the job
of the UN arms inspectors next to impossible. North Korea
does the opposite, starting a construction of underground
complexes, with ancillary facilities for exploding triggers
for nuclear weapons, in full and seemingly unabashed view of
U.S. spy satellites. In a game of "pay to peep" it has told
the U.S. if it wants a closer look the fee for site entry is
$400 million. With a brinkmanship that makes Saddam look a
model of rectitude North Korea, finding Washington
increasingly uncooperative, has threatened "to wipe America
from this planet for good".
There are some in the Clinton Administration who now
argue that their counsel to go to war and neutralise North
Korea in 1994 should have been acted upon. It was clear
then, they argued, that the country at some point would be
prepared to play the nuclear card it was developing, either
as back up for a ground invasion of the South to deter a
retaliatory attack on the North, or to deter U.S. supportive
efforts by threatening an attack on a U.S. base in Japan.
But when Clinton was told that a conflict would cost 52,000
American military casualties and 499,000 South Korean,
together with a very large number of civilian dead, he
decided rightly that negociation, however troubled and
tortuous, was his only viable course.
What, perhaps, Mr Clinton had not counted on was the "pig
in the middle" position he'd find himself five years later
with the Congressional Republicans on one side and the
Pyongyang regime on the other, both actively playing to each
other's sensitive points. All along the Republicans have
made it difficult for the Clinton Administration to honour
part of the deal it eventually made in 1994--providing fuel
oil for North Korea and lifting economic sanctions on the
country in return for North Korea renouncing its nuclear
weapons program. Angry, isolated, rigid and paranoid,
Pyongyang has seized on this as a reason or an excuse to
start digging these provocative underground sites. All this
does is make the Republicans even more intransigent, further
restricting the delivery of fuel oil and making the day when
sanctions will be lifted even more distant.
For now, the other part of the bargain, indeed the major
ingredient of it, continues--the building, by South Korea,
with some financial aid from Japan and a so far unrealized
amount from the U.S., of two light water nuclear reactors
for the safe production of domestic electricity in the
North, (which unlike older models cannot be adapted to
produce weapons-grade plutonium). But in this game of poker,
even that is threatened. After the August rocket test across
Japan there were many voices raised inside Japan arguing to
abrogate the deal; the government responded by suspending
its contribution for a couple of months. Inside South Korea,
likewise, the policy of rapprochment with the North set in
motion by the relatively new president Kim Dae Jung has come
under severe attack.
Clinton is on the horn of a dilemma far sharper than
1994, and far more potentially dangerous than exists with
Iraq. If he misjudges the calls he now has to make he could
end up driving America into war with North Korea, one that
many experts say could involve on the North Korean side both
chemical and nuclear weapons and the loss of millions of
lives. The pressures on the U.S. to retaliate with at least
tactical nuclear weapons would be formidable. Secretary of
State James Baker, it should not be forgotten, made it all
but plain to Iraq just before the Gulf War that the use of
weapons of mass destruction by Iraq would be met in
kind.
There is no question that this U.S. Administration could
ever persuade Congress to part with the $400 million "peep
fee" which, anyway, would only pay for one visit, not the
many necessary to keep a regular eye on developments.
Diplomats are saying it could perhaps be fudged, by helping
North Korea with more humanitarian relief, rather than
handing over hard cash. But even this could not happen if
Pyongyang insists on ratcheting up the decibels.
For Clinton, his personal hope must be to finesse the
crisis until he is out of office. He is not the type who
would want to have the use of nuclear weapons on his
conscience. For Pyongyang too, there must be a desire to
feel its way slowly. It needs time, some four to five years,
before it could complete a nuclear tipped missile program.
And it cannot be sure that it won't miscalculate and push
America--even the Clinton Administration--that one bit too
much.
Thus, like a slow-motion film the actors walk towards the
abyss. Or don't they? Last time it was ex-President Jimmy
Carter who came to the rescue and in face to face meetings
with Kim Il Sung secured the basis for the 1994 agreement.
This time such a last minute agreement may be even more
elusive. This is the moment when Washington, Seoul and Tokyo
need to steel their nerves and refuse to let events derail
them from the present pursuit of detente, even though this
will mean for all a tough fight with domestic opponents. The
other option of confrontation and let the chips fall where
they may is simply neither feasible nor acceptable.
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
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