The Survival
of Clinton, Kohl and Persson
By JONATHAN POWER
LUND, SWEDEN---If you want to win a lot of money in a
three way political bet, then gamble that by the end of the
autumn that Bill Clinton, Helmut Kohl and Goran Persson will
all be still firmly in office.
No one should underestimate how fine grind the wheels
of the American legal system. But, in the end, whether
Clinton goes or stays is a political matter. No Congress of
the United States would want to go down in history as the
one that stripped a president of office for breaking his
marital vows and lying to cover this up. Even if the stock
market should plummet and Clinton's poll ratings drop
precipitously, nothing can change this very basic political
fact.
In Germany Helmut Kohl, after 16 non-stop years in the
Chancellor's chair, looks set for defeat in next month's
general election. But don't believe it until you see it. He
was written off before the last election but then, as he is
now, made a remarkably strong finish. Events today are
playing into Kohl's hands. Not just the healthy performance
of the German economy, but the political instability in
Russia. The grand accomplishments of his tenure, the
reunification of Germany and the introduction of the
European single currency, cannot be matched by any promises
of the Social Democratic opposition. There is no equal great
idea on their horizon. High unemployment remains a bugbear
and the Social Democrats believe they have some policies
that may well bring it down. But not everyone is convinced,
and in another term of office it would have to be Kohl's
priority too. And always, even if it is in parenthesis, it
has to be said again and again, that it is a statistical
illusion that continental European unemployment rates are so
much higher than that of the U.S.--America just locks up a
large part of its unemployed, mainly young blacks convicted
of small time drug offenses.
It is in Sweden, however, that the conventional political
wisdom is likely to face its severest come-uppance--and this
must surely be the most interesting political happening in
the western world in the second half of 1998. The Social
Democrats may not be riding very high but they are doing
better than any of their rivals and look poised to propel
their leader Goran Persson back into the prime minister's
office.
Victory will demonstrate once more to those who usually
prefer not to know that sophisticated capitalism can
comfortably function in a society that works to redistribute
its wealth to the poor, aged, sick and unemployed.
For decades now, Sweden has been knocked, by usually
rather ignorant commentators in the U.S. and Britain, often
taking their cue from Sweden's own vociferous right wing
that wields a disproportionate influence in the local press.
Right now, after an awful recession by Swedish standards,
with the budgets of schools and hospitals being painfully
pared, the economy is bouncing back under Mr Persson's
clever stewardship. Eschewing all the gimmicks of the
anglo-saxons, large scale labour deregulation, tax cuts and
the rest (although it pioneered privatisation), Sweden today
is steadily increasing its GNP growth, lowering its
unemployment and announcing government spending plans to
repair the damage caused by six years of cut-backs.
The myths about Sweden are legion and none are more
profoundly wrong than those about Swedish sexual
habits--which, since this column began with an opinion on
the consequences of Clinton's sex life, is worth a word or
two. Yes, a male might be excused, if one walks around
Stockholm, feasting on one blonde after another, that this
country is some kind of sexual nirvana. But such lustful
thoughts are more likely to remain unfulfilled than
satisfied. Swedish women are no more or less promisicuous
than their western peers. They may have pioneered living in
sin, a "sambo" as the Swedish state officially calls it.
This entitles the partners to all the benefits of marriage
and all the penalties of separation--a 50/50 division of
assets if you've lived together for more than two years. But
most Swedes simply aspire to a stable marriage and a Volvo
in the drive.
Swedes are more heavily taxed than any other nation in
the world. That is not a myth. They groan about it all the
time. But given the chance to support a conservative
government, after four years they inevitably tire of its tax
cuts, therefore social service cuts and throw them out. The
Swedes realise they live in a state that makes sure their
hospitals, schools and old people's homes are the world's
best, and it would be all too easy to undermine their
standing with a competitive private sector that creams the
milk and leaves the rest slowly but steadily to deteriorate,
as has happened in America and is gathering pace in Britain.
The Swedes understand about being counter-productive.
Whether it be the U.S., Germany or Sweden, the eternal
truth prevails. Electorates don't take to change easily. If
you deliver what people are used to then the people stay
with you. In the U.S., it is economic prosperity and great
power status. In Germany, remedy for the defeat in World War
II. In Sweden, social responsibility.
Everyone to their own taste, as the French say. Another
bet: in all likelihood Al Gore will be the next president of
the U.S.A..
Augusti 26,
1998, LUND, SWEDEN
Copyright © 1998 By JONATHAN POWER
Note: I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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