Africa as the
Next Tiger
By JONATHAN POWER
LONDON-- Two and a half years ago France's minister for
overseas development, Jacques Godfrain, startled an
international conference suggesting that "Africa is on the
way to becoming the tiger of the twentyfirst
century--following the pattern of the tiger economies of
east Asia 30 years ago".
Few people predicted their fabulous growth rates, he
observed, "Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were at war. Malaysia
and Cambodia were battling communist insurrection. South
Korea was still emerging from a debilitating war...but look
what they achieved and now it is going to be the same story
with Africa."
At the time Mr Godfrain was widely disparaged. Today, it
seems, half the world is jumping on the African bandwagon.
What was yesterday's disaster continent is tomorrow's
tropical repository of unrealized, latent possibilities.
President Bill Clinton may have his own reasons for taking
such a long trip to Africa but his troubles at home rebound
to Africa's advantage. It gives Africa the break and boost
it is ready for.
No country illustrates Africa's potential more than the
desert democracy of Botswana, a well-chosen stop on Mr
Clinton's itinerary, one that would not have even been
considered for such a visit 20 years ago. These days it has
growth rates that make even (pre-crash) east Asia look slow
off the mark--16% a year in the 1970s and in the 1980s 11%.
In the nineties, hit by drought and the collapse of the
diamond market, which accounts for a third of the national
income, it still managed a healthy 6 to 7%.
It is no use blaming Botswana's success on diamonds. Of
course it helps. But Nigeria has been swimming in oil for
decades and has nothing to show for it. The Congo under
Mobutu and now under Kabila remains "the heart of darkness",
despite its fabulous deposits of not just diamonds, but
copper, bauxite and gold. At least half the African
continent has something the world desperately wants. In fact
the remarkable thing about Botswana's development is that
once the shine was off the diamond market it successfully
re-directed its energy and resources into non-traditional
exports--vehicle assembly, textiles and food processing.
The rewards for the people of Botswana are tangible--life
expectancy, school enrollment and health care have improved
dramatically. And now Botswana is cutting its tax rates,
privatising government departments, eliminating crop
subsidies and turning its attention to the plight of rural
and low income urban households.
Botswana is undoubtedly Africa's flag ship but boats are
leaving port all over the continent--countries as diverse as
the (violence-free) Ivory Coast, (war-torn) Angola,
(once-run-by-mad-man) Uganda, (land- locked, eroded,
mineral-poor) Lesotho and (ex-private fiefdom) Malawi have
all thrown off the shackles, economic and political, of the
past and have hit growth rates of tiger proportions. And
over half of sub-Saharan African countries have averaged
economic growth rates of 4% in recent years--not enough to
erase the decline and damage of the last two decades any
time soon, but nevertheless giving hope for the next
generation that they have a future.
A telling sign of Africa's new maturity was the
extraordinary reception for the two white men who visited
Africa this week, Pope John Paul II and Bill Clinton. There
was no sign of what would be more than understandable, a
current of hostility to what Mr Clinton had the courage to
be open and contrite about--a history of exploitation from
the days of slavery right up to the recent past when "during
the Cold War ... we dealt with countries in Africa based
more on how they stood in the struggle between the U.S. and
the Soviet Union than how they stood in the struggle for
their own people's aspirations."
The African character remains as it always was, the most
generous and least-complicated in the best sense, the people
most ready to turn a new leaf and let bygones be bygones.
If only Nigeria, Africa's most populated--and potentially
wealthiest--country, could become part of the new Africa the
continent then could be said to have truly broken with its
own bad past, of despotic tyranny and gross economic
mismanagement. In Nigeria a cruel and vicious military
regime continues to hold unchallenged sway, its political
opponents all under lock and key. The Pope rightly decided
to concentrate his energies there. Mr Clinton took the easy
option and gave the country a pass. But only when mighty
Nigeria takes the same walk in the sun as modest Botswana
has done will the continent be assured of the future it
deserves.
March 25, 1998, LONDON
Copyright © 1998 By JONATHAN POWER
Note: I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172; fax
+44 374 590493;
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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